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HUBLI, 5th March 2012
The higher participation of voters in the poll process keeps the democracy vibrant and alive.
This has already been proved in the state of Karnataka, TamilNadu and West Bengal already. And this time, the UP, the biggest state with a whopping 403 member assembly is all set to follow suit.
In Karnataka, it has been happening since 1999. The newly enrolled voters numbering around 35 lakhs in each election have plumped almost enmasse to help BJP to catapult to power to hoist the saffron flag for the first time in the south of Vindhays. Today in terms of the total vote base in the election, it has replaced the Congress from the number one position. (How the BJP is doing the hara-kiri is albeit a different matter.
In the last year’s election, this trend was noticed in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal , in particular.
In Tamilnadu, there was no increase in the electorate. But the turn out was quite high. Around 32.11 lakh more voters took turned up at the polling booths. Apparently all of them went for AIADMK, helping Jayalalitaa to end the hegemony of the DMK and Karunanidhi. The AIADMK, had an additional 33.81 lakh votes in its kitty. The inference is obvious.
In West Bengal , the electorate increased by 79.26 lakhs while 81.81 lakh more voters had exercised their franchise. And this helped the Trinamul Congress of Mamata Bannerji, to breach the CPM citadel to put an end to its long reign. The Trinamul had got an additional support of to the extent of 80.31 lakh votes. The CPM suffered slight erosion to the extent of 3.22 lakhs. The Congress lost the support to the extent of 14.74 lakhs while the BJP had gained by 11.74 lakh votes.
From the available information, it seems that similar drama is being enacted in the UP too. The state which has been under the BSP rule of Mayawati had witnessed one of the highest poll turn out this time to the extent of over 62%, in an electorate of 12.70 crores. Around 1.35 crores new voters had been enrolled this time. In terms of the voters who exercised their franchise, the increase was by over 2 crores according to the election authorities. The observers have noted a marked enthusiasm among the women voters this time it is the segment of the voters, who have absolutely no political commitment whatsoever who are going to write the new political history in the state.
The question is who is going to be beneficiary of the voters’ largesse- the two front runners, the BSP and the SP or the BJP and the Congress which are in the third and fourth position and lag far behind in terms of the total vote strength.
The odds should obviously favour the balance in favour of the BSP and the SP, who between themselves had accounted for 55.85% of the polled votes last time. And their opponents the BJP and Congress lagged far behind in the race with combined vote strength of around 25%.
The choice between them is quite dicey too. The odds favour SP undoubtedly if the incumbency factor is to be reckoned with. But the scales turning in favour of the Mayawati cannot be ruled out in the context of the high turn out of women voters this time.
The Congress which fought under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi and the BJP getting the bonanza may arise if the phenomenon of the Tamilnadu and West Bengal, with the entire bunch of the fresh voters extending the support enmasse to either of them.
Anyhow what is in the mind of the UP voters would be clear on 6th when the counting of votes is taken up.
Eom 12.27 hrs. 05.03.12.
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