New voters do the trick once again

Mathihalli Madan Mohan

Senior Journalist and Columnist

Hubli

                                       New voters do the trick once again.

HUBLI, 13^th March 2012

            UP has proved once again the trend discerned in the assembly elections held in  West Bengal and Tamilnadu, that the political changes are wrought mostly by the new voters than the  old voters.

            The essential difference between the UP and the WB and Tamilnadu patterns is that while in the two latter states, the new voters enmasse had plumped for the leading opposition party, in UP the new voters had distributed their largesse among the main contestants and the Samajvadi party proved to be biggest benefactor.

            A study of the electoral behaviour in the  country has proved  one thing in rather conclusive terms that that the parties in the poll mostly hold on to their  bases generally  and the shift of the political loyalty is a very rare indeed. And the shift any in such case too takes place marginally, while the bulk remain loyal to the party they have voted before.

            Under the circumstances,  the  political changes that have taken in states depends essentially on the new voters. They comprise of two categories, namely the newly enrolled voters and those who besides being voters had not noted before and come to exercise votes for the first time.  In Karnataka, it is the newly enrolled voters, who have regularly voted for the BJP in the past three elections, to catapult the party to power in 2008.  It had happened in West Bengal too, where the turned enmasse in support of the Trinamool Congress last time. In Tamilnadu however the latter category namely, the voters on the exercise their right for the first time sent  packing home the Karunanidhi government of the DMK and put the crown on  Jayalalitaa of the AIADMK.

            It has  happened once again Uttar Pradesh elections too, where the Samajvadi party led by the father and son duo Mulaylaym Singh and Akhilesh Singh, had turned ina stunning performanance to displace  BSP government of Mayavati and regain the power after a gap in a very convincing matter.

            The Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, it may be incidentally noted here witnessed a higher turn out for a state, which has a track record of low poll percentages  all these years. For the first time nearly 60% of the voters had turned up at the booths, which is perhaps a record for the state. It marked a more than 14% increase in the poll turn out and reports said that the womens turn out was appreciably higher this time.

            In terms of  numbers, the increase in poll turn out, meant that more than 2.35 crore voters had cast their votes. This included the around 1.38 crores voters who had enrolled themselves as voters for the first time and  remaining chunk being the voters though registered long ago, had exercised their right for the first time. All these  votes incidentally politically unattached votes,  and were making the choice of the parties for the first time.

              Of the total of 2.35 crore new votes waiting to be shared, the SP, was able to corner a whopping 88 lakhs, to win  224 seats as against 97 of 2007 and earned right to rule the biggest state in India by its own right. This appeared to be direct offshoot of the social engineering done by the SP in the allotment of tickets , the aggressive campaign done by Akhilesh Singh and rising disenchantment with the Mayavati Governement of the BSP .

            The  ruling BSP which could not match with the superior election campaign of the father and son duo of Mulayam and Akhilesh and lost the race  to retain power. Its only consolation has been that despite all the antipropaganda unleashed against it, it did receive an additional vote support to the extent of 37.74 lakhs. . But this was not enough to retain the power and stem the tide of support that SP had  been able to mop up.  It lost 126 seats to end up with only 80 in a house of 403  but emerge as the main opposition party in the sprawling state.

            The Congress, which run a spirited campaign under the leadership of  Rahul Gandhi projected as the Prime Minister in waiting  had the next highest share  to the extent of 42 lakhs votes;. In terms of the seats, it meant an additional six seats to its previous tally of 22. What is however significant is that its share in the polled votes had reached the double digit bracket  perhaps for the first time, though it has still a long way to go in quest of power in the state, by taking on the two well entrenched parties, the  SP and the BSP. All those, who had written off Rahul Gandhi’s campaign as a failure appears to be overlooked a significant fact that the campaign had brought  an increase in the base of the Congress. This trend had  also been noticed in Bihar too, where also the campaign was managed by Rahul Gandhi. .

            The BJP, which regarded the present poll as something of a  runup to the parliamentary polls scheduled in 2014, had quite a disappointing performanance. Though it did receive an additional votes to the extent of  25.19 lakhs,  it lost four seats . Its share in the polled votes showed a decline with the party receiving 15.01% as against  16.96 % of the previous poll.

            Another interesting factor is that there had been considerable reduction in the number of voters and seats going to the other splinter parties.  The four main parties between themselves could bag 376 seats in 403 member house, and capture more than 81% of the votes.

            From a national point of view in the context of the  coming parliamentary elections in about two years of time (if not earlier), the prognosis is not good at all for the top two national parties, the Congress and the BJP, whose disconnect with the voters at large has shown no signs of receding. Of the 2.35 crores of additional voters who exercised their right, in UP,  the share of  the two national parties, was a  mere 68 lakhs, while a marked higher chunk of votes went in favour of the regional satraps, the Mulayam Singh and the Mayavati, who between theselves had received a combined support  to the tune of  1.25 crores of votes. Going by the present mood, it is unlikely that the either the Congress or the BJP is able to show any improvement in the days preceding the next poll.

	U P Assembly Elections : Comparitive Study
			2012		2007
				diff
	Elec		127229780		113541350
				13688430
	Valid votes		75717070		52163147
	%		59.51	23553923	45.94
	BSP		19647549		15872561
				3774988
	%E		15.44		13.97
	%V		25.94		30.42
	seats		80		206
	SP		22107241		13267674
				8839567
	%E		17.37		11.68
	%V		29.19		25.43
	seats		224		97
	BJP		11371027		8851199
				2519828
	%E		8.93		7.79
	%V		15.01		16.96
	seats		47		51
	Cong		8816092		4489234
				4326858
	%E		6.92		3.95
	%V		11.64		8.6
	seats		28		22
	Performanance of the four parties
	seats secured			376	347
	votes polled		61941909	37991434
			81.81	72.83%
	Others
	seats		27	34
	votes		13775161	14171713

                                    (source CEO Uttar Pradesh)

Eom      09.19hrs. 13.03.2012.